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Ukraine appears to be showing its ability to strike far inside Russia by Reuters
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© Reuters. A satellite image shows a bomber in flight northeast from Engels Air Force Base in Saratov, Russia, Dec. 3, 2022. 2022 Maxar Technologies/Handout satellite image via REUTERS
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(Reuters) – A third Russian air base was set ablaze by a drone strike, a day after Ukraine demonstrated what appeared to be a new ability to penetrate hundreds of kilometers into Russia with attacks on two air bases.
Officials in the Russian city of Kursk, 90 km north of the Ukrainian border, posted pictures of black smoke over an airport after the latest strike on Tuesday. The governor said that a tank for storing oil caught fire, but there were no injuries.
On Monday, Russia said it had targeted hundreds of kilometers from Ukraine with what it said were Soviet-era drones – at Engels Air Base, home to Russia’s fleet of strategic bombers, and in Ryazan, a few hours’ drive from Moscow.
Ukraine did not directly claim responsibility for the strikes, but nonetheless celebrated them.
Russian state news agencies, citing Yevgeny Shpolsky, first deputy of the Engels district administration, reported that sirens sounded late Tuesday on the territory of the airport in Engels.
In Washington, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reiterated his country’s determination to provide Ukraine with the equipment it needs to defend itself, while saying it has not encouraged or enabled Ukrainians to strike inside Russia.
The Russian Defense Ministry said three soldiers were killed in the attack on Ryazan. Although the attacks targeted military targets, it described them as terrorism and said the aim was to disable its long-range aircraft.
Ukraine has never publicly admitted responsibility for the attacks inside Russia. Asked about the strikes, Defense Minister Olesky Reznikov repeated an old joke blaming negligence with cigarettes. “Often Russians smoke in places where smoking is prohibited,” he said.
Damage to the warplanes has also caused grumbling among Russian military bloggers, whose social media posts can provide a window into the mood in Russia during the war.
Leverage and control
At least 20 oil tankers queuing off Turkey face further delays to cross from Russia’s Black Sea ports into the Mediterranean, industry sources said, as operators race to comply with new added Turkish insurance rules before a Russian oil price cap is set for the G7.
A group official said the tanker disruption was not the result of the cap on Russian oil prices agreed upon by the G7 alliance and Australia.
A price ceiling of $60 a barrel was imposed on Monday at a level higher than the current price of Urals crude from Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter.
A US Treasury official told Reuters that the G7 countries and Australia will be busy in the coming weeks setting two additional caps on prices for Russian refined oil products that are due to take effect by February 5.
“I think the point is we have all the leverage and control now that we’ve been able to cap it at $60,” the official said. He added, “Any amendments will be in the interest of the Group of Seven, it will be in the interest of Ukraine, it will be in the interest of the global economy, and it will not be in the interest of Russia.”
Zelensky with the troops
Meanwhile, on the battlefields in eastern, northeastern and southern Ukraine, the Ukrainian military said late Tuesday that Russian forces continued shelling towns and villages.
Six people were killed when Donetsk came under missile and artillery fire, the mayor of the Russian-installed city, Aleksandr Kolymzin, reported on his Telegram channel.
“Look what they did,” said a resident named Irina, pointing to the apartment building where her apartment was destroyed. “There are people living there. People! Where do you shoot? Go in the fields and fight each other over there, not here. How many people are actually dying.”
Dmytro Zhivitsky, governor of the Sumy region on the Russian border, said several people were injured when Russian forces fired 226 shells into seven communities during the day.
War crimes investigators are investigating the deaths of hundreds of civilians since the start of the nearly 10-month conflict. Russia denies targeting civilians during what it calls a special operation to rid Ukraine of dangerous nationalists.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited troops near the front lines in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday.
Addressing soldiers later at the presidential palace in Kyiv, Zelensky said he had spent the day with the troops in the Donbass, the scene of the fiercest fighting, and in the Kharkiv region, where Ukrainians recaptured swathes of territory from Russian forces.
“Thousands of Ukrainians gave their lives so that the day would come when not a single occupying soldier would remain in our land and when all our people would be free,” Zelensky, wearing his khaki green sign, told the crowd.
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MicroStrategy is at its lowest level since 2020 after the sales were revealed
Published
3 weeks agoon
December 29, 2022By
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(Bloomberg) — Shares of MicroStrategy touched their lowest level since August 2020 after the enterprise software company, which in recent years has been known as the largest buyer of bitcoin, revealed its first sale of the token.
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The stock fell 1.1 percent to $136.63 on Thursday, down 75 percent this year. Bitcoin rose less than 1% to around $16,590 and is believed to have fallen 64% since the start of the year.
In a filing on Wednesday, MicroStrategy said it acquired approximately 2,395 Bitcoin between the beginning of November and December 21 through its subsidiary MacroStrategy, and paid out approximately $42.8 million in cash. It then sold 704 of the tokens on Dec. 22 for a total of about $11.8 million, citing tax purposes, before buying another 810 of them two days later.
Matt Malley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co. Step down as CEO. This news means they don’t seem to want to do that anytime soon.”
Overall, MicroStrategy held about 132,500 bitcoins worth over $4 billion USD as of December 27th. The company paid an average purchase price of $30,397 per bitcoin.
“Given MicroStrategy’s $2.4 billion in leverage, we believe the company may have a lot of leverage over Bitcoin, and may face some liquidity risk,” Jefferies analyst Brent Thiel wrote in a note on Wednesday. Thill has an “underperform” rating on the stock and a price target of $110.
Over the years of the pandemic, MicroStrategy has become well known for its Bitcoin takeovers, largely led by Saylor. Earlier this year, Saylor stepped down from that role and now serves as CEO at the company and continues to lead its bitcoin strategy.
MicroStrategy was trading around $120 before Saylor first announced the company’s Bitcoin purchases in 2020. The stock reached an all-time high of $1,315 in February 2021.
(Updates to include the stock’s closing price in the second paragraph.)
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Bankman-Fried May File Petition in New York Federal Court Next Week Before Judge Louis Kaplan By Cointelegraph
Published
3 weeks agoon
December 29, 2022By
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Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried is set to appear in court on the afternoon of January 3 to enter a lawsuit over two counts of wire fraud and six counts of conspiracy against him related to the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, according to Reuters. mentioned on December 28, citing court records. Bankman-Fried will appear before District Judge Lewis Kaplan in Manhattan.
Judge Kaplan was appointed to hear the case on December 27 after the original judge in the case, Ronnie Abrams, Resigned herself because of connections between FTX and the law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell, where her husband is a partner. The company provided advisory services to FTX in 2021.
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The US stock market, according to the S&P 500 index SPX typically rises just over 1% over that time period. With the exception of Thursday’s powerful session, Santa Claus is missing in action, but there is still time. A side effect of this system is that if the market Failure To record gains over the 7-day period, this is a negative sign going forward. Or as Hirsch so eloquently put it: “If Santa Claus fails to call him, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”
The SPX chart itself has resistance at 3900-3940, after crashing below 3900 in mid-December. So far, there has been support in the region of 3760-3800. Thus, the market is range bound in the short term. Don’t expect that to last for long. From a slightly longer-term perspective, there is heavy resistance reaching 4100, which is where the stock market rally in early December failed. On the downside, there should be some support at 3700, and then a yearly low at 3500. Of course, the bigger picture continues to be that of a bear market, with trend lines sloping down (blue lines in accompanying SPX chart). We do Not Have the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) signal in place at this time. SPX needs to move outside of +/- 4σ “Adjusted Bollinger Bands” to produce such a signal.
There has been massive buying recently, and buying percentages have been steadily rising because of that. These ratios have been in sell signals for a few weeks now, and as long as they are trending higher, these sell signals will remain in place. This applies to all of our buy-to-buy ratios, especially the stock-only ratios (accompanying charts) and the total buy-to-buy ratio. The CBE’s share-only buying ratio hit a huge number on December 28, but there are some arbitrage implications there, so that number may be overestimated. the Basic The ratio is near its yearly highs, which means it is definitely oversold, and weighted The ratio is starting to approach oversold levels as well. However, “Oversold does not mean overbought.”
The market breadth has been weak, therefore our wide oscillators remain sell signals, albeit in the oversold territory. The NYSE Breadth Oscillator attempted to generate buy signals on two recent occasions, but ultimately failed. The “Stocks Only” display oscillator did not generate a buy signal. We also monitor the difference between these two oscillators, which is oversold as well – after a buy signal failed recently.
One area that is slightly improving is the new 52-week highs on the New York Stock Exchange. Over the past two days, the number of new highs has been over 60. That may not sound like much, and it really isn’t – but it’s an improvement. However, for this indicator to generate a buy signal, the number of new highs must exceed 100 for two consecutive days. This may be difficult at the moment. The most optimistic area is volatility (VIX, to be exact). VIX She is still in her own world. Yes, it has risen slightly over the past two days, in what appears to be a concession to the sharp drop in stock prices, but overall, the technical signals from the VIX are still bullish for stocks. There is a “peak high” buy signal in place, and VIX direction The buy signal is also still active. The VIX would have to close above the 200-day moving average (currently at 25.50 and falling) to cancel VIX direction Buy signal, and it would have to close above 25.84 (mid-December high) to cancel the ‘peak high’ buy signal.
the Building Derivatives volatility remains bullish in its outlook for stocks as well. The term structures of both VIX futures and CBOE volatility indexes slope upward. Furthermore, all VIX futures are trading at healthy VIX premiums. These are positive signs for stocks.
In short, we continue to maintain a “fundamental” bearish position, due to the bearish trend on the SPX chart and due to the recent breakdown below 3900. There are also negative signals from the Bought and Breadth ratios (although both are oversold). The only current buy signals come from the volatility complex. Therefore, we will continue to trade the confirmed signals around this “core” position.
New recommendation: Chevron (CVX) There is a new buy signal for the buy-to-buy ratio in Chevron Buy 1 CVX February (17The tenth) 180 calls
At 7.20 or less.
CVX: 177.35 Feb (17.35).The tenth) 180 call: 7.00 bid at 7,20,000
We will hold this position as long as CVX’s buy-to-buy ratio remains on a buy signal. Follow the movement:
All breakpoints are mental breakpoints unless otherwise noted.
We use our “standard” rolling procedure Spread: In any bull or bears vertical spread, if the basic hits the short strike, roll over the entire spread. That would be a roll Top In the event of a bull call spread or roll Down In the event of a bear outbreak. Stay at the same expiration, and keep the distance between strikes the same unless otherwise instructed.
Long 2 SPY Jan (20The tenth) 375 lays and shorts Jan 2 (20The tenth) 355 places: This is our “basic” bearish position. As long as the SPX remains in a downtrend, we want to maintain the position here. Long 2 KMB Jan (20The tenth) 135 calls: It is based on the buy-to-buy ratio at Kimberly-Clark Long 2 IWM Jan (20The tenth) 185 Calls Through the Money and Short 2 IWM Jan (20The tenth) 205 calls: This is our bullish seasonality basis between Thanksgiving and the second trading day of the new year. Get out of this iShares Russell 2000 ETF The position at the close of trading on Wednesday, January 4, the second trading day of the new year.
Long 1 SPY Jan (20The tenth402 call and Short 1 SPY Jan (20The tenth) 417 calls: This spread was bought at the close on December 13thThe tenth, when the most recent VIX “peak high” buy signal was generated. Stop yourself if the VIX closes later above 25.84. Otherwise, we will hold for 22 trading days.
Long 1 SPY Jan (20The tenth389 Lay and Short 1 Spy Jan (20The tenth) 364 put: This was in addition to our “core” bearish position, created when the SPX closed below 3900 on December 15th.The tenth. Stop out from this spread if it is SPX Close above 3940. Long 2 PCAR Feb (17The tenth) 97.20 puts: This puts on Paccar Purchased on December 20thThe tenth, when they finally traded at our buy limit. We will continue to maintain these positions for as long as possible weighted Buy-to-buy ratio on a sell signal.
Long 2 SPY Jan (13The tenth) 386 calls and Short 2 SPY Jan (13The tenth) 391 calls: This is a trade based on the seasonal positive “March of Santa Claus” time period. There is no downtime for this trade, except for time. If SPY is trading at 391, roll the entire spread up by 15 pips on each side. In any case, exit your spreads at the end of trading on Wednesday, January 4th (the second trading day of the new year).
All breakpoints are mental breakpoints unless otherwise noted.
Lawrence G. McMillan is the President of McMillan Analysis, a registered investment and commodity trading advisor. McMillan may hold positions in securities recommended in this report, either personally or in client accounts. He is an experienced trader, money manager, and author of the best-selling book, Options as Strategic Investing. www.optionstrategist.com Send questions to: lmcmillan@optionstrategist.com.
Disclaimer: © McMillan Analysis Corporation is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment advisor and the CFTC as a commodity trading advisor. The information in this newsletter has been carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Officers or directors of McMillan Analysis Corporation or accounts managed by such persons may have positions in securities recommended in the advisory.
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Opinion: The stock market is range-bound in the short term. Don’t expect that to last long.
SPX,
Struggled this week overall, during a typically seasonal upswing. This is what Yale Hirsch called the “Santa Claus Walk” 60 years ago. It covers the time period of the last five trading days of one year and the first two trading days of the following year.
VIX,
CVX,
Coming from an extreme oversold condition. So, we’ll take a long stand here:
spy,
KMB,
This ratio has now turned into a sell signal, so sell these calls to close the position.
iwm,
PCAR,
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