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Stocks and Bonds Rise as Peak Rate Bets Rise: Markets Wrap



(Bloomberg) — The recovery in global markets extended for a second day, sending US index futures higher, as investors bet that central banks will have to slow the pace of monetary tightening.

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped at least 1.5% each after the major indexes posted a strong start to the quarter on Monday. The European Stoxx 600 gauge rose for a third day. The Australian dollar traded weaker after policy makers raised interest rates less than expected. Oil advanced on expectations that the OPEC+ alliance will deliver a significant supply cut. Dollar and Treasury yields fell for a second day.


Investors are seeing weaker-than-expected US manufacturing data support a dovish sentiment in the Federal Reserve after 3 percentage points of gains are beginning to tell the economy. Money markets are now seeing the federal funds rate rise to a peak below 4.5% by March. Speculation is growing that the global wave of turbulent monetary tightening is coming to an end, after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by half as expected.

“While the more rational approach outlined by the RBA does not lead to a cut in interest rates, it does offer the potential for a rollback of the more hawkish hawks in recent weeks,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a note. This means a bullish slump in the bond markets and should provide some support to the stock markets if other central banks follow suit.

Money markets are indicating that the Fed will raise rates by at most another 125 basis points by March compared to the 165 basis points seen after its third increase by three quarters last month. These diminishing expectations prompted a rally in Treasury bonds across the curve on Tuesday. The 10-year rate fell 6 basis points on Tuesday, while the two-year yield briefly fell below the 4% mark.

The dollar headed to its lowest level since September 22, with the pound rising as the biggest drag. The UK’s withdrawal of a tax cut plan has calmed nerves over the government’s fiscal health, although doubts remain over the currency outlook.


In Europe, the stock index jumped the most in three weeks as travel, technology and retail companies posted some of the biggest gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2.2%, the largest rise since March. Japan’s Topix stock index jumped more than 3%, boosted by technology stocks.

Electric vehicle makers rose in pre-market trading in New York. Rivian Automotive Inc. is up 7% after it reaffirmed its goal to build 25,000 electric vehicles this year. Tesla Inc advanced 3.1% after a report that Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management LLC had bought shares.

West Texas Intermediate rose near $84 a barrel after rising more than 5% on Monday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, will consider cutting production by more than 1 million barrels per day when they meet on Wednesday, delegates said.

Inland markets in China will remain closed this week for the holidays, while the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is closed on Tuesday for the Chung Yeung Festival.

This week’s main events:

  • Eurozone Producer Price Index, Tuesday

  • US Factory Orders, Durable Goods, Tuesday

  • Fed’s John Williams, Laurie Logan, Loretta Meester, and Mary Daly speak at events on Tuesday

  • PMIs for Eurozone Services, Wednesday

  • The OPEC + meeting begins, Wednesday

  • Federal Reserve Chairman Rafael Bostik speaking, Wednesday

  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets, Wednesday

  • Eurozone Retail Sales, Thursday

  • US Initial Jobless Claims, Thursday

  • Fed’s Charles Evans, Lisa Cook and Loretta Mester speak at events on Thursday

  • US Unemployment, Wholesale Inventories, Nonfarm Payrolls, Friday

  • Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaking at the event on Friday

  • John Williams of the Federal Reserve speaks at the event on Friday

Will earnings disappoint and push stocks to new lows? This week’s MLIV Pulse survey asks about corporate earnings. It is brief and we do not collect your name or any contact information. Please click here to share your views.

Some of the main movements in the markets:


  • The Stoxx Europe 600 is up 2.1% as of 9:39 a.m. London time

  • S&P 500 futures rose 1.5%

  • Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.8%

  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3%

  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up 2.2%.

  • MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 1.6%


  • Bloomberg spot dollar index down 0.3%.

  • The euro rose 0.5% to $0.9872

  • The Japanese yen fell 0.1 percent to 144.75 yen to the dollar

  • The foreign yuan rose 0.6 percent to 7.0649 per dollar

  • The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.1374


  • Bitcoin rose 1.8% to $19,940.47

  • Ether rose 1.9 percent to $1,349.14


  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell six basis points to 3.58%.

  • Germany’s 10-year yield fell 10 basis points to 1.82%

  • The yield on UK 10-year bonds fell 10 basis points to 3.87%.


  • Brent crude rose 0.6 percent to $89.39 a barrel

  • And the spot gold price rose 0.4 percent to $1,707.31 an ounce

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MicroStrategy is at its lowest level since 2020 after the sales were revealed




(Bloomberg) — Shares of MicroStrategy touched their lowest level since August 2020 after the enterprise software company, which in recent years has been known as the largest buyer of bitcoin, revealed its first sale of the token.

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The stock fell 1.1 percent to $136.63 on Thursday, down 75 percent this year. Bitcoin rose less than 1% to around $16,590 and is believed to have fallen 64% since the start of the year.


In a filing on Wednesday, MicroStrategy said it acquired approximately 2,395 Bitcoin between the beginning of November and December 21 through its subsidiary MacroStrategy, and paid out approximately $42.8 million in cash. It then sold 704 of the tokens on Dec. 22 for a total of about $11.8 million, citing tax purposes, before buying another 810 of them two days later.

Matt Malley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co. Step down as CEO. This news means they don’t seem to want to do that anytime soon.”

Overall, MicroStrategy held about 132,500 bitcoins worth over $4 billion USD as of December 27th. The company paid an average purchase price of $30,397 per bitcoin.

“Given MicroStrategy’s $2.4 billion in leverage, we believe the company may have a lot of leverage over Bitcoin, and may face some liquidity risk,” Jefferies analyst Brent Thiel wrote in a note on Wednesday. Thill has an “underperform” rating on the stock and a price target of $110.

Over the years of the pandemic, MicroStrategy has become well known for its Bitcoin takeovers, largely led by Saylor. Earlier this year, Saylor stepped down from that role and now serves as CEO at the company and continues to lead its bitcoin strategy.


MicroStrategy was trading around $120 before Saylor first announced the company’s Bitcoin purchases in 2020. The stock reached an all-time high of $1,315 in February 2021.

(Updates to include the stock’s closing price in the second paragraph.)

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Bankman-Fried May File Petition in New York Federal Court Next Week Before Judge Louis Kaplan By Cointelegraph




Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried is set to appear in court on the afternoon of January 3 to enter a lawsuit over two counts of wire fraud and six counts of conspiracy against him related to the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, according to Reuters. mentioned on December 28, citing court records. Bankman-Fried will appear before District Judge Lewis Kaplan in Manhattan.

Judge Kaplan was appointed to hear the case on December 27 after the original judge in the case, Ronnie Abrams, Resigned herself because of connections between FTX and the law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell, where her husband is a partner. The company provided advisory services to FTX in 2021.