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Return of Brittney Grenier sparks controversy over prisoner swaps. By Reuters
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1 month agoon
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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: American basketball player Brittney Griner, who was detained at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport and later charged with illegal possession of cannabis, walks after the court’s ruling in Khimki outside Moscow, Russia, August 4, 2022. REUTERS/Evgenia N.
Written by Humeyra Pamuk and Patricia Zengerli
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The release of American basketball star Brittney Grenier on Thursday in exchange for a convicted Russian arms dealer re-posed an age-old question: Does a prisoner exchange do more harm than good?
Amid the celebrations following Greener’s return, some critics, including members of Congress and federal law enforcement, have argued that such trade only encourages foreign countries to target Americans to gain leverage over the United States.
Families of those detained abroad reject this argument, saying there is no solid evidence to support this and that the US government should focus on deterring and punishing governments that unjustly detain or imprison US citizens.
The plight of American detainees abroad came to prominence after Greener’s arrest in February, and as the families ramped up their publicity efforts, concluding that years of quiet diplomacy had done little to bring back their loved ones.
Details of Griner’s release highlight the agonizing tradeoffs facing the Biden administration. After months of negotiations — which US officials hoped would bring home both Grenier and Paul Whelan, a former US Marine who accuses Moscow of spying — Russia was only willing to release Graner.
That trade meant the release of Viktor Bout, a Russian citizen. One of the world’s largest illegal arms dealers who was caught after a global manhunt was contacted by US authorities.
“The Russians and other regimes that take American citizens hostage cannot pretend that there is parity between the Brittney Greeners of the world and people like Victor Bout, the so-called ‘dealer of death,’” said Senator Bob Menendez, the Democratic chair of the Democratic Party. Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
“We must stop inviting dictatorships and rogue regimes to use Americans abroad as bargaining chips.”
Arrests at altitude
The arrest of Americans abroad is nothing new. From the Soviet Union’s capture of U-2 pilot Francis Gary Powers in the 1960s to the Iran hostage crisis in the 1970s and the more recent imprisonment of American citizens in North Korea, Iran and China, administrations have grappled with the question of if and when to negotiate.
The problem has become acute, as some governments appear to be using arbitrary detention as a negotiating tactic. In one such case in 2016, North Korea detained American university student Otto Warmbier during a dispute with the international community over missile launches in that country. Warmbier died a few days after his return.
At the same time, friends and families of American detainees are putting public pressure on the administration. Brittney Grainer’s arrest in February in Moscow for possession of electronic cigarette cartridges containing cannabis oil sparked an outpouring of support from fans, celebrities and politicians calling for her release and criticizing the Biden administration for not doing more.
Many families argue that the United States should be willing to negotiate and ignore the argument that prisoner exchanges lead more countries to take over Americans.
“I’m not aware of any concrete evidence that this will encourage more hostage-taking. And I think the important thing to stress is executive power,” said Harrison Lee, the son of Chinese American Cai Lee, who has been held by China since 2016. The thing that President Biden brought up, and it’s very clear in stipulating pre-emptive punitive measures that can be imposed on these countries.”
In July, Biden signed an executive order authorizing US government agencies to impose financial penalties and other measures on those involved in the wrongful detention of Americans.
Families say they have not seen strong enforcement of the order.
The United States does not provide an official figure for the number of American citizens detained abroad, but the James W. Foley Legacy Foundation, named after an American journalist who was kidnapped and killed in Syria, says more than 60 American citizens are unjustly detained in some 18 countries.
slippery slope
Beyond the question of whether prisoner swaps motivate incarcerations, the administration also faces criticism from law enforcement, with some questioning the wisdom of trading high-profile convicts like Bute.
“I don’t think you’re negotiating with terrorists, it’s a slippery slope, and it doesn’t end well,” said Robert Zachariasevich, a former US Drug Enforcement Administration agent who helped lead the team that captured Bout.
“I’ve spoken to so many people throughout the Department of Justice at all levels. They are frustrated, disillusioned, and disenfranchised.”
Management acknowledges the difficulties.
“Negotiations for the release of illegal detainees are often very difficult — and that’s just the fact — partly because of the price that must be paid to bring Americans home to their loved ones and partly because the immediate results can seem unfair or arbitrary,” said White House spokeswoman Karen Gunn. Pierre after the news of Graner’s release.
Those difficult choices meant that Washington could either leave Whelan in Russian custody or return empty-handed after months of negotiations. Whelan’s family described the situation as a “disaster”.
“Where are all these people with their other solutions on how to bring the Americans back?” asked Elizabeth Whelan, Paul Whelan’s sister. “What’s the alternative? Yes, it’s terrible to send someone like Viktor Bout back, sure, but that means we’re bringing Americans home.”
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Business
MicroStrategy is at its lowest level since 2020 after the sales were revealed
Published
3 weeks agoon
December 29, 2022By
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(Bloomberg) — Shares of MicroStrategy touched their lowest level since August 2020 after the enterprise software company, which in recent years has been known as the largest buyer of bitcoin, revealed its first sale of the token.
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The stock fell 1.1 percent to $136.63 on Thursday, down 75 percent this year. Bitcoin rose less than 1% to around $16,590 and is believed to have fallen 64% since the start of the year.
In a filing on Wednesday, MicroStrategy said it acquired approximately 2,395 Bitcoin between the beginning of November and December 21 through its subsidiary MacroStrategy, and paid out approximately $42.8 million in cash. It then sold 704 of the tokens on Dec. 22 for a total of about $11.8 million, citing tax purposes, before buying another 810 of them two days later.
Matt Malley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co. Step down as CEO. This news means they don’t seem to want to do that anytime soon.”
Overall, MicroStrategy held about 132,500 bitcoins worth over $4 billion USD as of December 27th. The company paid an average purchase price of $30,397 per bitcoin.
“Given MicroStrategy’s $2.4 billion in leverage, we believe the company may have a lot of leverage over Bitcoin, and may face some liquidity risk,” Jefferies analyst Brent Thiel wrote in a note on Wednesday. Thill has an “underperform” rating on the stock and a price target of $110.
Over the years of the pandemic, MicroStrategy has become well known for its Bitcoin takeovers, largely led by Saylor. Earlier this year, Saylor stepped down from that role and now serves as CEO at the company and continues to lead its bitcoin strategy.
MicroStrategy was trading around $120 before Saylor first announced the company’s Bitcoin purchases in 2020. The stock reached an all-time high of $1,315 in February 2021.
(Updates to include the stock’s closing price in the second paragraph.)
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Business
Bankman-Fried May File Petition in New York Federal Court Next Week Before Judge Louis Kaplan By Cointelegraph
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3 weeks agoon
December 29, 2022By
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Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried is set to appear in court on the afternoon of January 3 to enter a lawsuit over two counts of wire fraud and six counts of conspiracy against him related to the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, according to Reuters. mentioned on December 28, citing court records. Bankman-Fried will appear before District Judge Lewis Kaplan in Manhattan.
Judge Kaplan was appointed to hear the case on December 27 after the original judge in the case, Ronnie Abrams, Resigned herself because of connections between FTX and the law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell, where her husband is a partner. The company provided advisory services to FTX in 2021.
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The US stock market, according to the S&P 500 index SPX typically rises just over 1% over that time period. With the exception of Thursday’s powerful session, Santa Claus is missing in action, but there is still time. A side effect of this system is that if the market Failure To record gains over the 7-day period, this is a negative sign going forward. Or as Hirsch so eloquently put it: “If Santa Claus fails to call him, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”
The SPX chart itself has resistance at 3900-3940, after crashing below 3900 in mid-December. So far, there has been support in the region of 3760-3800. Thus, the market is range bound in the short term. Don’t expect that to last for long. From a slightly longer-term perspective, there is heavy resistance reaching 4100, which is where the stock market rally in early December failed. On the downside, there should be some support at 3700, and then a yearly low at 3500. Of course, the bigger picture continues to be that of a bear market, with trend lines sloping down (blue lines in accompanying SPX chart). We do Not Have the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) signal in place at this time. SPX needs to move outside of +/- 4σ “Adjusted Bollinger Bands” to produce such a signal.
There has been massive buying recently, and buying percentages have been steadily rising because of that. These ratios have been in sell signals for a few weeks now, and as long as they are trending higher, these sell signals will remain in place. This applies to all of our buy-to-buy ratios, especially the stock-only ratios (accompanying charts) and the total buy-to-buy ratio. The CBE’s share-only buying ratio hit a huge number on December 28, but there are some arbitrage implications there, so that number may be overestimated. the Basic The ratio is near its yearly highs, which means it is definitely oversold, and weighted The ratio is starting to approach oversold levels as well. However, “Oversold does not mean overbought.”
The market breadth has been weak, therefore our wide oscillators remain sell signals, albeit in the oversold territory. The NYSE Breadth Oscillator attempted to generate buy signals on two recent occasions, but ultimately failed. The “Stocks Only” display oscillator did not generate a buy signal. We also monitor the difference between these two oscillators, which is oversold as well – after a buy signal failed recently.
One area that is slightly improving is the new 52-week highs on the New York Stock Exchange. Over the past two days, the number of new highs has been over 60. That may not sound like much, and it really isn’t – but it’s an improvement. However, for this indicator to generate a buy signal, the number of new highs must exceed 100 for two consecutive days. This may be difficult at the moment. The most optimistic area is volatility (VIX, to be exact). VIX She is still in her own world. Yes, it has risen slightly over the past two days, in what appears to be a concession to the sharp drop in stock prices, but overall, the technical signals from the VIX are still bullish for stocks. There is a “peak high” buy signal in place, and VIX direction The buy signal is also still active. The VIX would have to close above the 200-day moving average (currently at 25.50 and falling) to cancel VIX direction Buy signal, and it would have to close above 25.84 (mid-December high) to cancel the ‘peak high’ buy signal.
the Building Derivatives volatility remains bullish in its outlook for stocks as well. The term structures of both VIX futures and CBOE volatility indexes slope upward. Furthermore, all VIX futures are trading at healthy VIX premiums. These are positive signs for stocks.
In short, we continue to maintain a “fundamental” bearish position, due to the bearish trend on the SPX chart and due to the recent breakdown below 3900. There are also negative signals from the Bought and Breadth ratios (although both are oversold). The only current buy signals come from the volatility complex. Therefore, we will continue to trade the confirmed signals around this “core” position.
New recommendation: Chevron (CVX) There is a new buy signal for the buy-to-buy ratio in Chevron Buy 1 CVX February (17The tenth) 180 calls
At 7.20 or less.
CVX: 177.35 Feb (17.35).The tenth) 180 call: 7.00 bid at 7,20,000
We will hold this position as long as CVX’s buy-to-buy ratio remains on a buy signal. Follow the movement:
All breakpoints are mental breakpoints unless otherwise noted.
We use our “standard” rolling procedure Spread: In any bull or bears vertical spread, if the basic hits the short strike, roll over the entire spread. That would be a roll Top In the event of a bull call spread or roll Down In the event of a bear outbreak. Stay at the same expiration, and keep the distance between strikes the same unless otherwise instructed.
Long 2 SPY Jan (20The tenth) 375 lays and shorts Jan 2 (20The tenth) 355 places: This is our “basic” bearish position. As long as the SPX remains in a downtrend, we want to maintain the position here. Long 2 KMB Jan (20The tenth) 135 calls: It is based on the buy-to-buy ratio at Kimberly-Clark Long 2 IWM Jan (20The tenth) 185 Calls Through the Money and Short 2 IWM Jan (20The tenth) 205 calls: This is our bullish seasonality basis between Thanksgiving and the second trading day of the new year. Get out of this iShares Russell 2000 ETF The position at the close of trading on Wednesday, January 4, the second trading day of the new year.
Long 1 SPY Jan (20The tenth402 call and Short 1 SPY Jan (20The tenth) 417 calls: This spread was bought at the close on December 13thThe tenth, when the most recent VIX “peak high” buy signal was generated. Stop yourself if the VIX closes later above 25.84. Otherwise, we will hold for 22 trading days.
Long 1 SPY Jan (20The tenth389 Lay and Short 1 Spy Jan (20The tenth) 364 put: This was in addition to our “core” bearish position, created when the SPX closed below 3900 on December 15th.The tenth. Stop out from this spread if it is SPX Close above 3940. Long 2 PCAR Feb (17The tenth) 97.20 puts: This puts on Paccar Purchased on December 20thThe tenth, when they finally traded at our buy limit. We will continue to maintain these positions for as long as possible weighted Buy-to-buy ratio on a sell signal.
Long 2 SPY Jan (13The tenth) 386 calls and Short 2 SPY Jan (13The tenth) 391 calls: This is a trade based on the seasonal positive “March of Santa Claus” time period. There is no downtime for this trade, except for time. If SPY is trading at 391, roll the entire spread up by 15 pips on each side. In any case, exit your spreads at the end of trading on Wednesday, January 4th (the second trading day of the new year).
All breakpoints are mental breakpoints unless otherwise noted.
Lawrence G. McMillan is the President of McMillan Analysis, a registered investment and commodity trading advisor. McMillan may hold positions in securities recommended in this report, either personally or in client accounts. He is an experienced trader, money manager, and author of the best-selling book, Options as Strategic Investing. www.optionstrategist.com Send questions to: lmcmillan@optionstrategist.com.
Disclaimer: © McMillan Analysis Corporation is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment advisor and the CFTC as a commodity trading advisor. The information in this newsletter has been carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Officers or directors of McMillan Analysis Corporation or accounts managed by such persons may have positions in securities recommended in the advisory.
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Opinion: The stock market is range-bound in the short term. Don’t expect that to last long.
SPX,
Struggled this week overall, during a typically seasonal upswing. This is what Yale Hirsch called the “Santa Claus Walk” 60 years ago. It covers the time period of the last five trading days of one year and the first two trading days of the following year.
VIX,
CVX,
Coming from an extreme oversold condition. So, we’ll take a long stand here:
spy,
KMB,
This ratio has now turned into a sell signal, so sell these calls to close the position.
iwm,
PCAR,
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