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Dollar rises as a case to raise US interest rates By Reuters
Published
3 months agoon
By
admin
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: US dollar banknotes are shown in this illustration taken on July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Rovich/Illustration
Written by Tom Westbrook
SYDNEY (Reuters) – The dollar started the week strong on Monday as a strong US labor market boosted bets on higher interest rates as traders braced for data expected to show higher inflation.
US unemployment figures showed an unexpected drop last month, and inflation data due for release on Thursday is expected to show headline inflation of 8.1% on an annual basis. Policy makers’ preferred core inflation rate is expected to rise to 6.5%.
Sean Callow, a strategist at Westpac, said the data and higher yields were a “strong combination for the dollar.”
“This is further evidence that the US economy is not collapsing,” he said. “It just feeds into the idea that the Fed is going to spend the next three weeks saying the same about interest rates.”
Higher oil prices and geopolitical tension also provided plenty of reasons for nervousness about growth, affecting the currencies of energy importers in Europe and even exporters such as the growth-sensitive Australian dollar.
It fell 0.3% to a two-and-a-half year low of $0.6347 in early trade in Asia weakened by a holiday in Japan. Sterling fell 0.2 percent to $1.1071, while the yen was drifting into an area on the weaker side of 145 per dollar, which prompted the authorities to step in to support it last month.
The yen last recorded 145.37 yen to the dollar. The New Zealand dollar touched a two-week low of $0.5593.
Futures pricing indicates that traders see a roughly 90% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike in the US next month and more than 150 basis point rate tightening by May. Ten-year Treasury yields rose for the 10th consecutive week last week. [US/]
Benchmark futures jumped more than 11% last week after the Saudi-led production cartel agreed to cut supplies, while the intensifying war in Ukraine also poses a threat to Europe’s energy security as winter approaches.
The euro fell below $0.98 on Friday and was last seen at $0.9733. The level was stable at 112.83, off lows around 110 last week and crept back towards a 20-year high last month at 114.78.
Markets were waiting to see how the Kremlin might respond to the explosion that hit Russia’s only bridge to Crimea. Nuclear-armed North Korea conducted its seventh missile test recently over the weekend.
Chinese markets reopened after a week-long holiday, before which they settled at 7.1310 per dollar. The Communist Party’s 20th National Congress opened on Sunday, and is expected to reaffirm Xi Jinping’s leadership.
Service activity in China contracted for the first time since May in September, disappointing expectations.
“The yuan is likely to trade between 7.0 and 7.2 in the near term,” said Scotiabank strategist Qi Gao.
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Currency purchase prices at 2304 GMT
Description RIC Last US Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous change
session
Euro/Dollar
0.9733 USD 0.9732 -0.02% -14.41% +0.9739 +0.9728
dollar / yen
145.3800 145.2700 + 0.12% + 0.00% + 145.4150 +145.4400
euro / yen
141.50 141.62 -0.08% + 0.00% +141.5700 +141.4700
dollar / swiss
0.9948 0.9949 + 0.01% + 9.08% + 0.9949 +0.9950
Pound sterling / dollar
1.1073 1.1093 -0.19% -18.13% +1.1095 +1.1065
Canadian Dollar
1.3742 1.3739 + 0.02% + 8.69% +1.3754 +1.3725
Australian dollar / dollar
0.6352 0.6366 -0.22% -12.62% + 0.6375 + 0.6343
NZ
$ / $ 0.5597 0.5594 + 0.06% -18.23% + 0.5606 +0.5593
all spots
locations in Tokyo
spots in europe
twists
Tokyo forex market information from the Bank of Japan
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Business
MicroStrategy is at its lowest level since 2020 after the sales were revealed
Published
2 days agoon
December 29, 2022By
admin
(Bloomberg) — Shares of MicroStrategy touched their lowest level since August 2020 after the enterprise software company, which in recent years has been known as the largest buyer of bitcoin, revealed its first sale of the token.
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The stock fell 1.1 percent to $136.63 on Thursday, down 75 percent this year. Bitcoin rose less than 1% to around $16,590 and is believed to have fallen 64% since the start of the year.
In a filing on Wednesday, MicroStrategy said it acquired approximately 2,395 Bitcoin between the beginning of November and December 21 through its subsidiary MacroStrategy, and paid out approximately $42.8 million in cash. It then sold 704 of the tokens on Dec. 22 for a total of about $11.8 million, citing tax purposes, before buying another 810 of them two days later.
Matt Malley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co. Step down as CEO. This news means they don’t seem to want to do that anytime soon.”
Overall, MicroStrategy held about 132,500 bitcoins worth over $4 billion USD as of December 27th. The company paid an average purchase price of $30,397 per bitcoin.
“Given MicroStrategy’s $2.4 billion in leverage, we believe the company may have a lot of leverage over Bitcoin, and may face some liquidity risk,” Jefferies analyst Brent Thiel wrote in a note on Wednesday. Thill has an “underperform” rating on the stock and a price target of $110.
Over the years of the pandemic, MicroStrategy has become well known for its Bitcoin takeovers, largely led by Saylor. Earlier this year, Saylor stepped down from that role and now serves as CEO at the company and continues to lead its bitcoin strategy.
MicroStrategy was trading around $120 before Saylor first announced the company’s Bitcoin purchases in 2020. The stock reached an all-time high of $1,315 in February 2021.
(Updates to include the stock’s closing price in the second paragraph.)
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© Bloomberg LP 2022
Business
Bankman-Fried May File Petition in New York Federal Court Next Week Before Judge Louis Kaplan By Cointelegraph
Published
2 days agoon
December 29, 2022By
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Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried is set to appear in court on the afternoon of January 3 to enter a lawsuit over two counts of wire fraud and six counts of conspiracy against him related to the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, according to Reuters. mentioned on December 28, citing court records. Bankman-Fried will appear before District Judge Lewis Kaplan in Manhattan.
Judge Kaplan was appointed to hear the case on December 27 after the original judge in the case, Ronnie Abrams, Resigned herself because of connections between FTX and the law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell, where her husband is a partner. The company provided advisory services to FTX in 2021.
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The US stock market, according to the S&P 500 index SPX typically rises just over 1% over that time period. With the exception of Thursday’s powerful session, Santa Claus is missing in action, but there is still time. A side effect of this system is that if the market Failure To record gains over the 7-day period, this is a negative sign going forward. Or as Hirsch so eloquently put it: “If Santa Claus fails to call him, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”
The SPX chart itself has resistance at 3900-3940, after crashing below 3900 in mid-December. So far, there has been support in the region of 3760-3800. Thus, the market is range bound in the short term. Don’t expect that to last for long. From a slightly longer-term perspective, there is heavy resistance reaching 4100, which is where the stock market rally in early December failed. On the downside, there should be some support at 3700, and then a yearly low at 3500. Of course, the bigger picture continues to be that of a bear market, with trend lines sloping down (blue lines in accompanying SPX chart). We do Not Have the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) signal in place at this time. SPX needs to move outside of +/- 4σ “Adjusted Bollinger Bands” to produce such a signal.
There has been massive buying recently, and buying percentages have been steadily rising because of that. These ratios have been in sell signals for a few weeks now, and as long as they are trending higher, these sell signals will remain in place. This applies to all of our buy-to-buy ratios, especially the stock-only ratios (accompanying charts) and the total buy-to-buy ratio. The CBE’s share-only buying ratio hit a huge number on December 28, but there are some arbitrage implications there, so that number may be overestimated. the Basic The ratio is near its yearly highs, which means it is definitely oversold, and weighted The ratio is starting to approach oversold levels as well. However, “Oversold does not mean overbought.”
The market breadth has been weak, therefore our wide oscillators remain sell signals, albeit in the oversold territory. The NYSE Breadth Oscillator attempted to generate buy signals on two recent occasions, but ultimately failed. The “Stocks Only” display oscillator did not generate a buy signal. We also monitor the difference between these two oscillators, which is oversold as well – after a buy signal failed recently.
One area that is slightly improving is the new 52-week highs on the New York Stock Exchange. Over the past two days, the number of new highs has been over 60. That may not sound like much, and it really isn’t – but it’s an improvement. However, for this indicator to generate a buy signal, the number of new highs must exceed 100 for two consecutive days. This may be difficult at the moment. The most optimistic area is volatility (VIX, to be exact). VIX She is still in her own world. Yes, it has risen slightly over the past two days, in what appears to be a concession to the sharp drop in stock prices, but overall, the technical signals from the VIX are still bullish for stocks. There is a “peak high” buy signal in place, and VIX direction The buy signal is also still active. The VIX would have to close above the 200-day moving average (currently at 25.50 and falling) to cancel VIX direction Buy signal, and it would have to close above 25.84 (mid-December high) to cancel the ‘peak high’ buy signal.
the Building Derivatives volatility remains bullish in its outlook for stocks as well. The term structures of both VIX futures and CBOE volatility indexes slope upward. Furthermore, all VIX futures are trading at healthy VIX premiums. These are positive signs for stocks.
In short, we continue to maintain a “fundamental” bearish position, due to the bearish trend on the SPX chart and due to the recent breakdown below 3900. There are also negative signals from the Bought and Breadth ratios (although both are oversold). The only current buy signals come from the volatility complex. Therefore, we will continue to trade the confirmed signals around this “core” position.
New recommendation: Chevron (CVX) There is a new buy signal for the buy-to-buy ratio in Chevron Buy 1 CVX February (17The tenth) 180 calls
At 7.20 or less.
CVX: 177.35 Feb (17.35).The tenth) 180 call: 7.00 bid at 7,20,000
We will hold this position as long as CVX’s buy-to-buy ratio remains on a buy signal. Follow the movement:
All breakpoints are mental breakpoints unless otherwise noted.
We use our “standard” rolling procedure Spread: In any bull or bears vertical spread, if the basic hits the short strike, roll over the entire spread. That would be a roll Top In the event of a bull call spread or roll Down In the event of a bear outbreak. Stay at the same expiration, and keep the distance between strikes the same unless otherwise instructed.
Long 2 SPY Jan (20The tenth) 375 lays and shorts Jan 2 (20The tenth) 355 places: This is our “basic” bearish position. As long as the SPX remains in a downtrend, we want to maintain the position here. Long 2 KMB Jan (20The tenth) 135 calls: It is based on the buy-to-buy ratio at Kimberly-Clark Long 2 IWM Jan (20The tenth) 185 Calls Through the Money and Short 2 IWM Jan (20The tenth) 205 calls: This is our bullish seasonality basis between Thanksgiving and the second trading day of the new year. Get out of this iShares Russell 2000 ETF The position at the close of trading on Wednesday, January 4, the second trading day of the new year.
Long 1 SPY Jan (20The tenth402 call and Short 1 SPY Jan (20The tenth) 417 calls: This spread was bought at the close on December 13thThe tenth, when the most recent VIX “peak high” buy signal was generated. Stop yourself if the VIX closes later above 25.84. Otherwise, we will hold for 22 trading days.
Long 1 SPY Jan (20The tenth389 Lay and Short 1 Spy Jan (20The tenth) 364 put: This was in addition to our “core” bearish position, created when the SPX closed below 3900 on December 15th.The tenth. Stop out from this spread if it is SPX Close above 3940. Long 2 PCAR Feb (17The tenth) 97.20 puts: This puts on Paccar Purchased on December 20thThe tenth, when they finally traded at our buy limit. We will continue to maintain these positions for as long as possible weighted Buy-to-buy ratio on a sell signal.
Long 2 SPY Jan (13The tenth) 386 calls and Short 2 SPY Jan (13The tenth) 391 calls: This is a trade based on the seasonal positive “March of Santa Claus” time period. There is no downtime for this trade, except for time. If SPY is trading at 391, roll the entire spread up by 15 pips on each side. In any case, exit your spreads at the end of trading on Wednesday, January 4th (the second trading day of the new year).
All breakpoints are mental breakpoints unless otherwise noted.
Lawrence G. McMillan is the President of McMillan Analysis, a registered investment and commodity trading advisor. McMillan may hold positions in securities recommended in this report, either personally or in client accounts. He is an experienced trader, money manager, and author of the best-selling book, Options as Strategic Investing. www.optionstrategist.com Send questions to: lmcmillan@optionstrategist.com.
Disclaimer: © McMillan Analysis Corporation is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment advisor and the CFTC as a commodity trading advisor. The information in this newsletter has been carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Officers or directors of McMillan Analysis Corporation or accounts managed by such persons may have positions in securities recommended in the advisory.
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Opinion: The stock market is range-bound in the short term. Don’t expect that to last long.
SPX,
Struggled this week overall, during a typically seasonal upswing. This is what Yale Hirsch called the “Santa Claus Walk” 60 years ago. It covers the time period of the last five trading days of one year and the first two trading days of the following year.
VIX,
CVX,
Coming from an extreme oversold condition. So, we’ll take a long stand here:
spy,
KMB,
This ratio has now turned into a sell signal, so sell these calls to close the position.
iwm,
PCAR,
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