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As China begins to dismantle ‘zero COVID’ controls, virus fears grow by Reuters
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2 months agoon
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© Reuters. People wearing face masks cross the street, as the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues in Shanghai, China December 8, 2022. REUTERS/Ali Song
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Written by Brenda Goh and Ella Kao
BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – As many Chinese embraced new freedoms Thursday after the country abandoned key parts of its strict regime to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus, there were growing concerns that the virus, which has been largely restricted, It could spread soon.
Three years into the pandemic, many in China have longed for Beijing to begin aligning its strict virus prevention measures with the rest of the world, which has largely opened up in an effort to coexist with the disease.
Those frustrations boiled over into widespread protests last month, in the biggest show of public discontent since President Xi Jinping came to power in 2012.
Without saying it was a response to those protests, some cities and regions have begun to ease COVID controls, in moves that heralded a nationwide relaxation of rules revealed by the National Health Commission on Wednesday.
People with mild symptoms can now self-quarantine at home, the NHC said, eliminating the need for tests and health status checks on mobile apps for a variety of activities including travel around the country.
Domestic ticket sales to tourist and entertainment venues have soared, according to state press, while some people have taken to social media to reveal they have tested positive for the virus — something that once carried heavy stigma in China.
Others expressed caution.
“I know COVID isn’t ‘terrible’ right now, but it’s still contagious and will hurt,” said one of the posts on Weibo (NASDAQ:). “The fear it brings to our hearts cannot be easily dispelled.”
“So many positives!” Another Weibo user said.
Some manufacturers and restaurants keen to stay open in China prefer to err on the side of caution, by keeping COVID-19 restrictions in place until they get a clearer picture of how workplaces will be affected by the easing of strict measures.
China reported 21,439 new domestic COVID-19 infections on December 7, down slightly from the previous day and below the peak of 40,052 cases on November 27. Cases have trended downward recently as authorities across the country rolled back testing requirements.
Shares in China and Hong Kong lifted Asian stock markets on Thursday, as those still cautious steps toward reopening were seen to give the world’s second-largest economy a chance to regain momentum. Macau casino operators partially led the rally, finishing up 12.2%, sending their quarterly gains up to 46.5%.
which has also regained some of its gains against the dollar in recent weeks, was little changed on Thursday.
More broadly, the shift is likely to slow economic growth over the next few months as infections increase, leading to a rebound only later in 2023, economists said.
China’s Premier Li Keqiang was quoted by state broadcaster CCTV on Thursday as saying that this growth will continue to accelerate with the implementation of relaxation measures.
Il prepared
Shanghai, China’s most populous city, which has suffered one of the country’s longest and harshest lockdowns, on Thursday eliminated the need for COVID tests to enter restaurants or entertainment venues.
There has been no mention of China’s “zero COVID” policy in recent announcements, raising suspicions that the term has expired as the government gradually moves the country toward coexistence with the virus.
Senior officials have also softened their tone on the risks posed by the virus.
But, embracing the new, more relaxed controls, some cities have urged residents to exercise caution.
“The general public should maintain good awareness of personal protection, and be the first person responsible for their own health,” Zhengzhou, the central city with the world’s largest iPhone factory, said in a message to residents.
He urged residents to wear masks, maintain social distancing, seek medical attention for fever and other COVID symptoms, and especially for the elderly, to get vaccinated.
Some analysts and medical experts say China is ill-prepared for a spike in infections, in part because of low vaccination rates among vulnerable groups and a fragile healthcare system.
Amid reports of panic buying of fever medicine, financial news outlet Yicai, citing third-party data, said the average daily sales volume of home test kits had risen more than 400 times compared to November.
“(China) may have to pay a price for its procrastination in adopting a ‘live with COVID’ approach,” Nomura analysts said in a note Thursday.
China’s infection rates of just 0.13% are “far from the level required for herd immunity,” Nomura said.
As many as 60% of China’s population could be infected in the first wave on a large scale before stabilizing, Feng Zijian, a former CDC official in China, told China Youth Daily.
“Eventually, about 80%-90% of people will be infected,” he said.
The country will likely face a large-scale outbreak in the next month or two, state-owned China Newsweek reported Thursday, citing health experts.
China’s current tally of 5,235 COVID-related deaths is a fraction of its population of 1.4 billion, very low by global standards. And some experts have warned that the death toll could rise to more than 1.5 million if the exit is too precipitated.
But, even with the stakes, there is an acceptance among many that life must go on.
Yan, an unemployed 22-year-old resident of Beijing, said he hoped a greater opening up of the Chinese economy would help him: “It’s impossible to completely kill this virus, maybe just live with it, and hope it develops into influenza.” I am looking for a job.
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Business
MicroStrategy is at its lowest level since 2020 after the sales were revealed
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1 month agoon
December 29, 2022By
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(Bloomberg) — Shares of MicroStrategy touched their lowest level since August 2020 after the enterprise software company, which in recent years has been known as the largest buyer of bitcoin, revealed its first sale of the token.
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The stock fell 1.1 percent to $136.63 on Thursday, down 75 percent this year. Bitcoin rose less than 1% to around $16,590 and is believed to have fallen 64% since the start of the year.
In a filing on Wednesday, MicroStrategy said it acquired approximately 2,395 Bitcoin between the beginning of November and December 21 through its subsidiary MacroStrategy, and paid out approximately $42.8 million in cash. It then sold 704 of the tokens on Dec. 22 for a total of about $11.8 million, citing tax purposes, before buying another 810 of them two days later.
Matt Malley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co. Step down as CEO. This news means they don’t seem to want to do that anytime soon.”
Overall, MicroStrategy held about 132,500 bitcoins worth over $4 billion USD as of December 27th. The company paid an average purchase price of $30,397 per bitcoin.
“Given MicroStrategy’s $2.4 billion in leverage, we believe the company may have a lot of leverage over Bitcoin, and may face some liquidity risk,” Jefferies analyst Brent Thiel wrote in a note on Wednesday. Thill has an “underperform” rating on the stock and a price target of $110.
Over the years of the pandemic, MicroStrategy has become well known for its Bitcoin takeovers, largely led by Saylor. Earlier this year, Saylor stepped down from that role and now serves as CEO at the company and continues to lead its bitcoin strategy.
MicroStrategy was trading around $120 before Saylor first announced the company’s Bitcoin purchases in 2020. The stock reached an all-time high of $1,315 in February 2021.
(Updates to include the stock’s closing price in the second paragraph.)
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Business
Bankman-Fried May File Petition in New York Federal Court Next Week Before Judge Louis Kaplan By Cointelegraph
Published
1 month agoon
December 29, 2022By
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Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried is set to appear in court on the afternoon of January 3 to enter a lawsuit over two counts of wire fraud and six counts of conspiracy against him related to the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, according to Reuters. mentioned on December 28, citing court records. Bankman-Fried will appear before District Judge Lewis Kaplan in Manhattan.
Judge Kaplan was appointed to hear the case on December 27 after the original judge in the case, Ronnie Abrams, Resigned herself because of connections between FTX and the law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell, where her husband is a partner. The company provided advisory services to FTX in 2021.
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The US stock market, according to the S&P 500 index SPX typically rises just over 1% over that time period. With the exception of Thursday’s powerful session, Santa Claus is missing in action, but there is still time. A side effect of this system is that if the market Failure To record gains over the 7-day period, this is a negative sign going forward. Or as Hirsch so eloquently put it: “If Santa Claus fails to call him, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”
The SPX chart itself has resistance at 3900-3940, after crashing below 3900 in mid-December. So far, there has been support in the region of 3760-3800. Thus, the market is range bound in the short term. Don’t expect that to last for long. From a slightly longer-term perspective, there is heavy resistance reaching 4100, which is where the stock market rally in early December failed. On the downside, there should be some support at 3700, and then a yearly low at 3500. Of course, the bigger picture continues to be that of a bear market, with trend lines sloping down (blue lines in accompanying SPX chart). We do Not Have the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) signal in place at this time. SPX needs to move outside of +/- 4σ “Adjusted Bollinger Bands” to produce such a signal.
There has been massive buying recently, and buying percentages have been steadily rising because of that. These ratios have been in sell signals for a few weeks now, and as long as they are trending higher, these sell signals will remain in place. This applies to all of our buy-to-buy ratios, especially the stock-only ratios (accompanying charts) and the total buy-to-buy ratio. The CBE’s share-only buying ratio hit a huge number on December 28, but there are some arbitrage implications there, so that number may be overestimated. the Basic The ratio is near its yearly highs, which means it is definitely oversold, and weighted The ratio is starting to approach oversold levels as well. However, “Oversold does not mean overbought.”
The market breadth has been weak, therefore our wide oscillators remain sell signals, albeit in the oversold territory. The NYSE Breadth Oscillator attempted to generate buy signals on two recent occasions, but ultimately failed. The “Stocks Only” display oscillator did not generate a buy signal. We also monitor the difference between these two oscillators, which is oversold as well – after a buy signal failed recently.
One area that is slightly improving is the new 52-week highs on the New York Stock Exchange. Over the past two days, the number of new highs has been over 60. That may not sound like much, and it really isn’t – but it’s an improvement. However, for this indicator to generate a buy signal, the number of new highs must exceed 100 for two consecutive days. This may be difficult at the moment. The most optimistic area is volatility (VIX, to be exact). VIX She is still in her own world. Yes, it has risen slightly over the past two days, in what appears to be a concession to the sharp drop in stock prices, but overall, the technical signals from the VIX are still bullish for stocks. There is a “peak high” buy signal in place, and VIX direction The buy signal is also still active. The VIX would have to close above the 200-day moving average (currently at 25.50 and falling) to cancel VIX direction Buy signal, and it would have to close above 25.84 (mid-December high) to cancel the ‘peak high’ buy signal.
the Building Derivatives volatility remains bullish in its outlook for stocks as well. The term structures of both VIX futures and CBOE volatility indexes slope upward. Furthermore, all VIX futures are trading at healthy VIX premiums. These are positive signs for stocks.
In short, we continue to maintain a “fundamental” bearish position, due to the bearish trend on the SPX chart and due to the recent breakdown below 3900. There are also negative signals from the Bought and Breadth ratios (although both are oversold). The only current buy signals come from the volatility complex. Therefore, we will continue to trade the confirmed signals around this “core” position.
New recommendation: Chevron (CVX) There is a new buy signal for the buy-to-buy ratio in Chevron Buy 1 CVX February (17The tenth) 180 calls
At 7.20 or less.
CVX: 177.35 Feb (17.35).The tenth) 180 call: 7.00 bid at 7,20,000
We will hold this position as long as CVX’s buy-to-buy ratio remains on a buy signal. Follow the movement:
All breakpoints are mental breakpoints unless otherwise noted.
We use our “standard” rolling procedure Spread: In any bull or bears vertical spread, if the basic hits the short strike, roll over the entire spread. That would be a roll Top In the event of a bull call spread or roll Down In the event of a bear outbreak. Stay at the same expiration, and keep the distance between strikes the same unless otherwise instructed.
Long 2 SPY Jan (20The tenth) 375 lays and shorts Jan 2 (20The tenth) 355 places: This is our “basic” bearish position. As long as the SPX remains in a downtrend, we want to maintain the position here. Long 2 KMB Jan (20The tenth) 135 calls: It is based on the buy-to-buy ratio at Kimberly-Clark Long 2 IWM Jan (20The tenth) 185 Calls Through the Money and Short 2 IWM Jan (20The tenth) 205 calls: This is our bullish seasonality basis between Thanksgiving and the second trading day of the new year. Get out of this iShares Russell 2000 ETF The position at the close of trading on Wednesday, January 4, the second trading day of the new year.
Long 1 SPY Jan (20The tenth402 call and Short 1 SPY Jan (20The tenth) 417 calls: This spread was bought at the close on December 13thThe tenth, when the most recent VIX “peak high” buy signal was generated. Stop yourself if the VIX closes later above 25.84. Otherwise, we will hold for 22 trading days.
Long 1 SPY Jan (20The tenth389 Lay and Short 1 Spy Jan (20The tenth) 364 put: This was in addition to our “core” bearish position, created when the SPX closed below 3900 on December 15th.The tenth. Stop out from this spread if it is SPX Close above 3940. Long 2 PCAR Feb (17The tenth) 97.20 puts: This puts on Paccar Purchased on December 20thThe tenth, when they finally traded at our buy limit. We will continue to maintain these positions for as long as possible weighted Buy-to-buy ratio on a sell signal.
Long 2 SPY Jan (13The tenth) 386 calls and Short 2 SPY Jan (13The tenth) 391 calls: This is a trade based on the seasonal positive “March of Santa Claus” time period. There is no downtime for this trade, except for time. If SPY is trading at 391, roll the entire spread up by 15 pips on each side. In any case, exit your spreads at the end of trading on Wednesday, January 4th (the second trading day of the new year).
All breakpoints are mental breakpoints unless otherwise noted.
Lawrence G. McMillan is the President of McMillan Analysis, a registered investment and commodity trading advisor. McMillan may hold positions in securities recommended in this report, either personally or in client accounts. He is an experienced trader, money manager, and author of the best-selling book, Options as Strategic Investing. www.optionstrategist.com Send questions to: lmcmillan@optionstrategist.com.
Disclaimer: © McMillan Analysis Corporation is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment advisor and the CFTC as a commodity trading advisor. The information in this newsletter has been carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Officers or directors of McMillan Analysis Corporation or accounts managed by such persons may have positions in securities recommended in the advisory.
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Opinion: The stock market is range-bound in the short term. Don’t expect that to last long.
SPX,
Struggled this week overall, during a typically seasonal upswing. This is what Yale Hirsch called the “Santa Claus Walk” 60 years ago. It covers the time period of the last five trading days of one year and the first two trading days of the following year.
VIX,
CVX,
Coming from an extreme oversold condition. So, we’ll take a long stand here:
spy,
KMB,
This ratio has now turned into a sell signal, so sell these calls to close the position.
iwm,
PCAR,
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