The campaign hasn’t made available to the public the full…
Oregon hasn’t had a Republican governor in forty years, but a new poll shows that GOP state Sen. Christine Drazan is just barely ahead of Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek. This makes the streak even more interesting. The poll could be a powerful way for Republicans to raise money as the two former leaders of the
state House get ready for a rematch of their close 2022 gubernatorial race. A polling memorandum obtained by The Oregonian/OregonLive shows that 48% of registered voters surveyed supported Drazan, while only 44% supported Kotek. The candidates are statistically tied, even though they seem to have a 4-point lead. This is because the survey has a
margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll was paid for by Drazan’s campaign and was done by Public Opinion Strategies, a national Republican-aligned firm that talked to 600 registered Oregon voters from June 22 to June 24. The campaign hasn’t made available to the public the full survey questionnaire, detailed
methodology, or demographic crosstabs that would let outside analysts look into how the results were obtained.
This plan tries to make the race about more than…
The poll has some flaws that make it impossible to say for sure that Drazan is ahead, but it does show that the race may be closer than Oregon’s political history made us think. The main results have been shared by Drazan’s campaign staff with lobbyists and potential donors in order to show that the
Republican party has a real chance of winning the November election. Oregon voters last chose a Republican governor in 1982, when Victor Atiyeh won a second term. Since January 1987, Democrats have held the governorship without a break. In 2022, Kotek beat Drazan with about 47% of the vote to the Republican’s 43. 5%.
Betsy Johnson, who wasn’t running for office, got about 9%.
Johnson’s presence split voters who were unhappy with Democratic leadership and made it harder for Drazan to build the coalition he needed to win a statewide race in Oregon, which is usually a Democratic state. This year, there isn’t a similar conservative-leaning independent running, which… This year, there isn’t a similar conservative-leaning independent running, which
could help Drazan get more of the anti-Kotek vote than she did four years ago.
Brett Smith, the candidate for the Pacific Green Party, is in the
running right now. His presence could attract some left-leaning voters who might have voted for Kotek otherwise. Drazan has tried to keep the election focused on issues that are important to Oregon, such as homelessness, housing costs, public safety, education, and the overall cost of living. Idaho Learning News reported that her campaign has held
big events in downtown Portland to make the case that years of Democratic control have not fixed the state’s most obvious problems. As the race comes down to its final stretch, Kotek faces widespread dissatisfaction with the state of Oregon. This gives Drazan a chance to frame the election as a vote on the incumbent’s
performance. In response, the Democratic campaign has linked Drazan to President Trump and national Republican policies on healthcare, immigration enforcement, and running the elections. This plan tries to make the race about more than just Kotek’s performance by reminding Oregon voters of how they have always been against Republican presidential candidates and policies.
Drazan’s campaign wants the opposite to happen. They want voters to keep
their attention on the state government and ask whether the Democratic leadership has done a good job with everyday issues. The fact that Drazan has saved up about $3 million gives us another reason to pay attention to the race: it gives him the resources he needs to stay competitive through the fall. Kotek still
has more money than Drazan, but Oregon’s media markets outside of Portland are relatively cheap, which could allow Drazan to keep up a large advertising and organizing operation across the whole state. The closing campaign is also sped up by the election calendar because Oregon’s elections are mostly done through mailed ballots, which voters can
finish before the usual last week. Voters will start getting ballots in October. This gives both… Voters will start getting ballots in October. This gives both campaigns a short time to reach people who usually send in their ballots long before Election Day. Idaho Learning News reported that early voters could make up their minds
before late debates, ad campaigns, or unexpected events change the political conversation in the last few days.
If Drazan’s support goes beyond a survey paid for by her own
campaign, it will be easier to see if it is true through independent polling.